BitX SpaceBETA

A backtest that tells the truth, even when it hurts

A real backtest from the system: following every 1-hour signal, 344 trades, a 54.6% loss — and over 80% of the loss was fees. This is why you test before you believe.

2 October 2026 · 1 min read

If someone told you “follow these signals and get rich”, would you believe them? We tried it on our own system’s signals first, and the result is the best lesson in why you always test before you believe.

Backtest on BTC/USDT 1 hour: total return −54.6%, 344 trades, 33% win rate, PF 0.52, with a falling equity curve
A real backtest on the test system, 2 October 2026 · results change with the data period and settings

Settings used

  • BTC/USDT 1-hour chart, 2,580 real candles
  • Enter on every enabled signal, both long and short
  • Starting capital 10,000 USDT, 1% risk per trade, profit target 2 ATR, stop loss 1 ATR, held at most 24 candles
  • Fees 0.20% round trip

The result

  • Total return −54.6% over 344 trades
  • Win rate 33%, profit factor (PF) 0.52, max drawdown 56.3%
  • Net loss 5,463 USDT, of which 4,631 USDT was fees

The system doesn’t hide this. It shows a “this strategy loses” warning, points out that fees ate almost all of it, and offers to rerun at 0% fees to see whether the signals themselves have an edge.

The lesson in this number

Trade often with short targets, and fees become your biggest cost. Filtering down to the good signals matters more than adding trades — which is why the system has Hermes screening, and paper portfolios to compare results before anything real.

Why the result can be trusted

  • It uses the same signal detector as the live system
  • Each candle sees only data up to that candle — no peeking at the future
  • A candle that touches both the target and the stop counts as a loss (assume the worst)
  • It uses the same entry-and-exit logic as the paper portfolios
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